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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$51.96
Intrinsic $69.28 · 25% MOS
Current price: $79.66
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 6.7% for years 1–5 and 3.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 6.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $362M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $69.28 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $51.96, suggesting the stock is currently 35% overvalued against the $79.66 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$362M
Cash & equivalents
$252M
Total debt
$2.0B
Shares outstanding
96M