Nelly Group AB (NELLY.XSTO) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
kr 48.16
61% undervaluedvs kr 29.90
Base
kr 90.66
203% undervaluedvs kr 29.90
Optimistic
kr 172.43
477% undervaluedvs kr 29.90
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks undervalued, which is only as reliable as the growth rates you have entered.
Base free cash flow
kr 73M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+25.8%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
-2.9%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
69%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -2.9% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 20.0%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +25.8% a year.
Nelly Group AB (NELLY.XSTO) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Nelly Group AB (NELLY.XSTO) at about SEK 120.88 per share, or SEK 90.66 with a 25% margin of safety. At SEK 29.90 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Nelly Group AB's (NELLY.XSTO) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about SEK 120.88 per share for NELLY.XSTO. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around SEK 90.66. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Nelly Group AB overvalued based on a DCF?+
At SEK 29.90, NELLY.XSTO trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about SEK 120.88, a 304.3% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Nelly Group AB?+
The base case grows NELLY.XSTO's free cash flow at about 20.0% a year before fading, against roughly 25.8% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Nelly Group AB?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns NELLY.XSTO's SEK 120.88 intrinsic estimate into a SEK 90.66 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.