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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$264.82
Intrinsic $353.10 · 25% MOS
Current price: $456.22
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Moodys Corp (MCO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $353.10 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $264.82, suggesting the stock is currently 42% overvalued against the $456.22 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Cash & equivalents
$1.5B
Total debt
$7.3B
Shares outstanding
177M