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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$55.52
Intrinsic $74.03 · 25% MOS
Current price: $41.81
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for APi Group Corp (APG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 39.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $680M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $74.03 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $55.52, suggesting the stock is currently 33% undervalued against the $41.81 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$680M
Cash & equivalents
$645M
Total debt
$2.8B
Shares outstanding
435M