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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$346.45
Intrinsic $461.94 · 25% MOS
Current price: $410.92
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.3% for years 1–5 and 4.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $5.6B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $461.94 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $346.45, suggesting the stock is currently 16% overvalued against the $410.92 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$5.6B
Cash & equivalents
$1.8B
Total debt
$13.9B
Shares outstanding
298M