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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$326.40
Intrinsic $435.21 · 25% MOS
Current price: $221.28
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.1% for years 1–5 and 6.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $435.21 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $326.40, suggesting the stock is currently 48% undervalued against the $221.28 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Cash & equivalents
$2.9B
Total debt
$2.7B
Shares outstanding
212M