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Our Company We opened our first location on Alvarado Street in Los Angeles, California, in 1980, and have grown our restaurant system to 503 domestic restaurants, comprised of 175 company-operated and 328 franchised restaurants as of December 31, 2025. Our restaurants are located principally in California, but also in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Utah, Colorado, Washington and Louisiana.
$16.24
$0.36 (-2.14%)
Live · 05:22 PM
Operating margin is thin at 8.58%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.
Revenue grew 3.6%, steady but not accelerating.
Net debt of $235M represents 9.2x FCF, leverage limits flexibility.
16.6x earnings, 17.9x FCF. Valuation is in a reasonable range. The main question is whether the business can re-accelerate or if current trajectory is already priced in.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$497M
▲ +3.6% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$29M
▲ +3.1% YoY
Op. Margin
9.11%
▼ -0.1pp YoY
ROIC
6.22%
▼ -0.2pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$27M
▼ -8.2% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$56M
▲ +2.8% YoY
Net Debt
$229M
Cash & Equiv.
$4M
5Y CAGR: +2.8%
5Y CAGR: -5.6%
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At a P/E of 16.6 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 17.9, El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $7.96 per share, so at $16.24 the stock looks overvalued (51.0% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, El Pollo Loco Holdings scores 57/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a mixed business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $7.96 per share for LOCO, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $5.97. At today's $16.24, that puts the stock about 51.0% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
El Pollo Loco Holdings scores 57 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a mixed business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 9.1% operating margin and a 6.2% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. LOCO currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 57/100 on quality (mixed). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.