/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$17.84
Intrinsic $23.79 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 40.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($295M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $23.79 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $17.84.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($295M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$295M
Cash & equivalents
$130M
Total debt
$3.0B
Shares outstanding
506M