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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$527.10
Intrinsic $702.80 · 25% MOS
Current price: $19.33
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 29.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.4B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $702.80 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $527.10, suggesting the stock is currently 2627% undervalued against the $19.33 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.4B
Cash & equivalents
$37M
Total debt
$2.6B
Shares outstanding
99M