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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$72.43
Intrinsic $96.57 · 25% MOS
Current price: $36.72
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Hess Midstream LP (HESM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 4.7% for years 1–5 and 2.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 4.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $796M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $96.57 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $72.43, suggesting the stock is currently 97% undervalued against the $36.72 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$796M
Cash & equivalents
$5M
Total debt
$3.8B
Shares outstanding
129M