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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$155.08
Intrinsic $206.77 · 25% MOS
Current price: $331.43
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Heico Corp (HEI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 20.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($625M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $206.77 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $155.08, suggesting the stock is currently 53% overvalued against the $331.43 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($625M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$625M
Cash & equivalents
$210M
Total debt
$2.6B
Shares outstanding
141M