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Not financial advice. Analytical data for research only.
Intrinsiqq is a Netherlands-based company operating in Rotterdam, KvK 73238007.
General bldg contractors - residential bldgs company · FL · FY ends Dec · Revenue $2.83B · 11.16% margin · $26M FCF
$30.53
$1.28 (-4.02%)
EOD Sep 1, 2026
Operating margin is thin at 9.78%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.
Revenue grew 8.6%, steady but not accelerating. Free cash flow declined 176% despite revenue growth, conversion is weakening.
Free cash flow declined 176% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened. Negative free cash flow of -$125M. The business is consuming cash, not generating it.
14.9x earnings, 152.5x FCF. The multiple is below average. Either the market is pricing in deterioration you should investigate, or there's genuine value here.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$2.83B
▲ +8.6% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$292M
▲ +695.8% YoY
Op. Margin
11.16%
ROIC
6.58%
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$26M
▼ -176.4% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$199M
▼ -70.0% YoY
Net Debt
$1.55B
Cash & Equiv.
$55M
5Y CAGR: +2.3%
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SourceComputed from the 10-Q filed 6 Aug 2026, covering the period ending 30 Jun 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 7 Aug 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 1 Sept 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec. Sector medians are approximate S&P 500 benchmarks and update periodically.
At a P/E of 14.9 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 152.5, Geo Group (GEO) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $-8.29 per share, so at $30.53 the stock looks overvalued (127.1% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Geo Group scores 23/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $-8.29 per share for GEO, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $-6.21. At today's $30.53, that puts the stock about 127.1% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Geo Group scores 23 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 11.2% operating margin and a 6.6% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. GEO currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 23/100 on quality (lower-quality). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.