Choose a model
Each card values Evolent Health a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Evolent Health on revenue: sales per share grow and the stock trades at a normal price-to-sales multiple. For companies not yet profitable.
Years to project
Growth of revenue per share
Revenue per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/S
Starts at its industry's median P/S
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's revenue per share
Last twelve months
$18.55
Revenue in 2031
Grows 4.4% a year for 5 years
$23.00
Price in 2031
$23.00 × 1.3 P/S
$29.90
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$18.57
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$18.57
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$13.93
Paying $4.80 instead gives 44.2% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$18.57
Expected return
44.2% a year
Future price, 2031
$29.90
Buy below
$13.93
Price 74% below fair valuePrice $4.80, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Evolent Health (EVH) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Evolent Health's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for EVH; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Evolent Health's (EVH) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Evolent Health's fair value is about $18.57 a share, based on its revenue per share. That assumes revenue per share of $18.55 grows about 4.4% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 1.3 times revenue, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Evolent Health overvalued?+
At $4.80, the price is 74% below that fair value of $18.57, and buying at today's price would return about 44.2% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Evolent Health valuation assume?+
Revenue per share grows about 4.4% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its industry's median.
What is a good margin of safety for Evolent Health?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $13.93. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Services-Management Services · Pick stocks to compare with EVH
Held by ETFs
EVH is in 15 US ETFs. The largest of them, with EVH's weight in each:
Vanguard Health Care ETFVHT0.00%of the fund
iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETFIWO0.01%of the fund
Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company ETFFNDA0.06%of the fund
Dimensional US Small Cap Value ETFDFSV0.00%of the fund
Invesco RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETFPRFZ0.04%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in EVH's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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