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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$110.65
Intrinsic $147.53 · 25% MOS
Current price: $38.16
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 24.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $155M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $147.53 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $110.65, suggesting the stock is currently 190% undervalued against the $38.16 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$155M
Cash & equivalents
$478M
Total debt
$1.1B
Shares outstanding
49M