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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$29.98
Intrinsic $39.97 · 25% MOS
Current price: $87.76
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.5% for years 1–5 and 4.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($293M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $39.97 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $29.98, suggesting the stock is currently 66% overvalued against the $87.76 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($293M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$293M
Cash & equivalents
$200M
Total debt
$4.9B
Shares outstanding
70M