Choose a model
Each card values Churchill Downs a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Churchill Downs on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at the average of its 5-year median P/E, today's and a mature 18
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted, last twelve months, as filed
$6.53
Earnings in 2031
Grows 20.0% a year for 5 years
$16.26
Price in 2031
$16.26 × 18.0 P/E
$292.66
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$181.72
Plus dividends
$4.02 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $2.95
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$184.67
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$138.50
Paying $98.00 instead gives 24.8% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$184.67
Expected return
24.8% a year
Future price, 2031
$292.66
Buy below
$138.50
Price 47% below fair valuePrice $98.00, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Churchill Downs Incorporated. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
$95.85
2% below the priceof $98.00
Buy below $71.89 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
$165.97
69% above the priceof $98.00
Buy below $124.48 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
$253.91
159% above the priceof $98.00
Buy below $190.44 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range, 69% below the base case. Whether that is a discount depends entirely on the base case growth holding.
Base free cash flow
$604M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+8.2%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
2.5%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
63%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 2.5% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 8.2%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +8.2% a year.
Churchill Downs (CHDN) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Churchill Downs's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for CHDN; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Churchill Downs's (CHDN) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Churchill Downs's fair value is about $184.67 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of $6.53 grows about 20.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 18.0 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow $324.29, revenue $267.09. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Churchill Downs overvalued?+
At $98.00, the price is 47% below that fair value of $184.67, and buying at today's price would return about 24.8% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Churchill Downs valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 20.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise), capped at 20%. The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Churchill Downs?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $138.50. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
SourceFair value computed from the 10-Q filed 21 Oct 2026, covering the period ending 30 Sept 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 29 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 4 Nov 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec.
Peers
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Held by ETFs
CHDN is in 112 US ETFs. The largest of them, with CHDN's weight in each:
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in CHDN's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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