Chagee Holdings Ltd. American (CHA) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
¥71.93
485% undervaluedvs ¥12.30
Base
¥78.00
534% undervaluedvs ¥12.30
Optimistic
¥84.67
588% undervaluedvs ¥12.30
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks undervalued, which is only as reliable as the growth rates you have entered.
Base free cash flow
¥772M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-45.5%
Across 3 reported periods
Market implies
—
No solution in range
Terminal value share
58%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
No growth rate in the tested range reproduces today's price at these assumptions.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -45.5% a year.
Chagee Holdings Ltd. American (CHA) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Chagee Holdings Ltd. American (CHA) at about CNY 104.01 per share, or CNY 78.00 with a 25% margin of safety. At CNY 12.30 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Chagee Holdings Ltd. American's (CHA) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about CNY 104.01 per share for CHA. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CNY 78.00. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Chagee Holdings Ltd. American overvalued based on a DCF?+
At CNY 12.30, CHA trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about CNY 104.01, a 745.6% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Chagee Holdings Ltd. American?+
The base case grows CHA's free cash flow at about 2.0% a year before fading, against roughly -45.5% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Chagee Holdings Ltd. American?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns CHA's CNY 104.01 intrinsic estimate into a CNY 78.00 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.