BYD Co., Ltd. Intrinsic Value

With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, BYD Co.'s fair value is about ¥82.78 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of ¥3.37 grows about 15.3% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 19.4 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: revenue ¥103.27. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.

At ¥58.15, the price is 30% below that fair value of ¥82.78, and buying at today's price would return about 18.1% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.

Earnings per share grows about 15.3% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.

A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at ¥62.08. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.