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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
¥343.11
Intrinsic ¥457.48 · 25% MOS
Current price: ¥27.57
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for JD.com, Inc. (JD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.3% for years 1–5 and 2.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from ¥25.9B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of ¥457.48 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of ¥343.11, suggesting the stock is currently 1144% undervalued against the ¥27.57 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
¥25.9B
Cash & equivalents
¥213.2B
Total debt
¥107.1B
Shares outstanding
1.4B