Axfood AB (AXFO.XSTO) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
kr 202.46
24% overvaluedvs kr 267.45
Base
kr 305.47
14% undervaluedvs kr 267.45
Optimistic
kr 433.77
62% undervaluedvs kr 267.45
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range, 14% below the base case. Whether that is a discount depends entirely on the base case growth holding.
Base free cash flow
kr 4.09B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+8.1%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
2.3%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 2.3% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 8.1%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +8.1% a year.
Axfood AB (AXFO.XSTO) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Axfood AB (AXFO.XSTO) at about SEK 406.47 per share, or SEK 304.85 with a 25% margin of safety. At SEK 267.45 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Axfood AB's (AXFO.XSTO) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about SEK 406.47 per share for AXFO.XSTO. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around SEK 304.85. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Axfood AB overvalued based on a DCF?+
At SEK 267.45, AXFO.XSTO trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about SEK 406.47, a 52.0% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Axfood AB?+
The base case grows AXFO.XSTO's free cash flow at about 8.1% a year before fading, against roughly 8.1% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Axfood AB?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns AXFO.XSTO's SEK 406.47 intrinsic estimate into a SEK 304.85 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.