/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$189.27
Intrinsic $252.36 · 25% MOS
Current price: $33.90
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for ANTERO RESOURCES Corp (AR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 16.5% for years 1–5 and 8.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 16.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.0B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $252.36 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $189.27, suggesting the stock is currently 458% undervalued against the $33.90 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.0B
Cash & equivalents
$0
Total debt
$4.8B
Shares outstanding
311M