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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$489.47
Intrinsic $652.62 · 25% MOS
Current price: $50.40
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Matador Resources Co (MTDR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 15.5% for years 1–5 and 7.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 15.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $652.62 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $489.47, suggesting the stock is currently 871% undervalued against the $50.40 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Cash & equivalents
$30M
Total debt
$3.5B
Shares outstanding
123M