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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$3.37
Intrinsic $4.49 · 25% MOS
Current price: $6.53
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 0.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $25M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $4.49 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $3.37, suggesting the stock is currently 48% overvalued against the $6.53 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$25M
Cash & equivalents
$182M
Total debt
$10M
Shares outstanding
133M