/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$12.85
Intrinsic $17.13 · 25% MOS
Current price: $2.73
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 18.1% for years 1–5 and 9.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 18.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $31M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $17.13 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $12.85, suggesting the stock is currently 371% undervalued against the $2.73 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$31M
Cash & equivalents
$155M
Total debt
$165M
Shares outstanding
82M