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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$10.04
Intrinsic $13.39 · 25% MOS
Current price: $6.03
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Certara, Inc. (CERT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.4% for years 1–5 and 4.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $89M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $13.39 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $10.04, suggesting the stock is currently 67% undervalued against the $6.03 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$89M
Cash & equivalents
$149M
Total debt
$304M
Shares outstanding
158M