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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$92.13
Intrinsic $122.85 · 25% MOS
Current price: $58.10
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($392M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $122.85 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $92.13, suggesting the stock is currently 59% undervalued against the $58.10 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$175M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($392M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$392M
Cash & equivalents
$3.0B
Total debt
$5.2B
Shares outstanding
61M