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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$21.97
Intrinsic $29.29 · 25% MOS
Current price: $86.23
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for O Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.9B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $29.29 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $21.97, suggesting the stock is currently 75% overvalued against the $86.23 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.9B
Cash & equivalents
$253M
Total debt
$8.7B
Shares outstanding
843M