/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$17.51
Intrinsic $23.35 · 25% MOS
Current price: $47.37
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp (ZWS) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.3% for years 1–5 and 4.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($167M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $23.35 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $17.51, suggesting the stock is currently 63% overvalued against the $47.37 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($167M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$167M
Cash & equivalents
$274M
Total debt
$552M
Shares outstanding
170M