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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$112.71
Intrinsic $150.28 · 25% MOS
Current price: $264.09
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.9% for years 1–5 and 2.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $150.28 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $112.71, suggesting the stock is currently 57% overvalued against the $264.09 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Cash & equivalents
$827M
Total debt
$10.6B
Shares outstanding
289M