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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$94.29
Intrinsic $125.72 · 25% MOS
Current price: $139.40
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Timken Co (TKR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.9% for years 1–5 and 5.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $383M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $125.72 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $94.29, suggesting the stock is currently 32% overvalued against the $139.40 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$383M
Cash & equivalents
$345M
Total debt
$2.2B
Shares outstanding
70M