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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$8.26
Intrinsic $11.01 · 25% MOS
Current price: $2.07
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for XCel Brands, Inc. (XELB) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($3M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $11.01 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $8.26, suggesting the stock is currently 299% undervalued against the $2.07 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$6M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($3M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$3M
Cash & equivalents
$179000
Total debt
$18M
Shares outstanding
6M