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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$51.04
Intrinsic $68.06 · 25% MOS
Current price: $197.36
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Welltower Inc. (WELL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 13.5% for years 1–5 and 6.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 13.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.9B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $68.06 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $51.04, suggesting the stock is currently 74% overvalued against the $197.36 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.9B
Cash & equivalents
$4.7B
Total debt
$20.0B
Shares outstanding
726M