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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$61.84
Intrinsic $82.45 · 25% MOS
Current price: $81.59
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Wayfair Inc. (W) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.6% for years 1–5 and 4.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $488M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $82.45 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $61.84, suggesting the stock is currently 24% overvalued against the $81.59 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$488M
Cash & equivalents
$1.1B
Total debt
$3.6B
Shares outstanding
131M