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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$5.15
Intrinsic $6.87 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Baozun Inc. (BZUN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 15.2% for years 1–5 and 7.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 15.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $45M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $6.87 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $5.15.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$45M
Cash & equivalents
$380M
Total debt
$902M
Shares outstanding
173M