Related stocks: Railroads, Line-Haul Operating
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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Related stocks: Railroads, Line-Haul Operating
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$86.26
Intrinsic $115.02 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Union Pacific Corp (UNP) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $5.7B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $115.02 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $86.26.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$5.7B
Cash & equivalents
$1.0B
Total debt
$31.5B
Shares outstanding
594M