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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$332.96
Intrinsic $443.94 · 25% MOS
Current price: $115.83
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 26.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $443.94 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $332.96, suggesting the stock is currently 187% undervalued against the $115.83 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.2B
Cash & equivalents
$14.2B
Total debt
$31.0B
Shares outstanding
327M