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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$23.87
Intrinsic $31.83 · 25% MOS
Current price: $15.99
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 17.3% for years 1–5 and 8.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 17.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.1B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $31.83 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $23.87, suggesting the stock is currently 49% undervalued against the $15.99 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Cash & equivalents
$7.4B
Total debt
$33.8B
Shares outstanding
661M