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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$40.71
Intrinsic $54.27 · 25% MOS
Current price: $400.49
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 6.9% for years 1–5 and 3.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 6.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $7.0B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $54.27 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $40.71, suggesting the stock is currently 90% overvalued against the $400.49 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$7.0B
Cash & equivalents
$44.7B
Total debt
$15.9B
Shares outstanding
3.5B