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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$151.61
Intrinsic $202.15 · 25% MOS
Current price: $298.01
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Apple Inc. (AAPL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 6.8% for years 1–5 and 3.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 6.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $129.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $202.15 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $151.61, suggesting the stock is currently 49% overvalued against the $298.01 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$129.2B
Cash & equivalents
$68.5B
Total debt
$84.7B
Shares outstanding
14.7B