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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$151.67
Intrinsic $202.23 · 25% MOS
Current price: $379.40
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Microsoft Corp (MSFT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.4% for years 1–5 and 2.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $72.9B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $202.23 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $151.67, suggesting the stock is currently 60% overvalued against the $379.40 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$72.9B
Cash & equivalents
$78.3B
Total debt
$125.4B
Shares outstanding
7.4B