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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$54.90
Intrinsic $73.20 · 25% MOS
Current price: $34.28
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $338M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $73.20 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $54.90, suggesting the stock is currently 60% undervalued against the $34.28 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$338M
Cash & equivalents
$133M
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
82M