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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$72.73
Intrinsic $96.97 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Trex Co Inc (TREX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 18.1% for years 1–5 and 9.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 18.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $226M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $96.97 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $72.73.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$226M
Cash & equivalents
$4M
Total debt
$53M
Shares outstanding
105M