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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$131.55
Intrinsic $175.39 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $175.39 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $131.55.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash & equivalents
$1.1B
Total debt
$5.4B
Shares outstanding
96M