Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis AG (TIBN.XSWX) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (-CHF 34M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (CHF 7M) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
CHF 17.03
66% overvaluedvs CHF 49.50
Base
CHF 27.86
44% overvaluedvs CHF 49.50
Optimistic
CHF 52.43
6% undervaluedvs CHF 49.50
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 44% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
CHF 7M
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
+0.0%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
11.7%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
62%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 11.7% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 8.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +0.0% a year.
Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis (TIBN.XSWX) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis (TIBN.XSWX) at about CHF 37.15 per share, or CHF 27.86 with a 25% margin of safety. At CHF 49.50 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis's (TIBN.XSWX) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about CHF 37.15 per share for TIBN.XSWX. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CHF 27.86. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis overvalued based on a DCF?+
At CHF 49.50, TIBN.XSWX trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about CHF 37.15, a 24.9% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis?+
The base case grows TIBN.XSWX's free cash flow at about 8.0% a year before fading. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns TIBN.XSWX's CHF 37.15 intrinsic estimate into a CHF 27.86 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.