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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$51.69
Intrinsic $68.92 · 25% MOS
Current price: $43.42
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 19.4% for years 1–5 and 9.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 19.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.0B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $68.92 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $51.69, suggesting the stock is currently 19% undervalued against the $43.42 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Cash & equivalents
$674M
Total debt
$14.3B
Shares outstanding
526M