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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$110.66
Intrinsic $147.55 · 25% MOS
Current price: $212.08
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.5% for years 1–5 and 3.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $702M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $147.55 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $110.66, suggesting the stock is currently 48% overvalued against the $212.08 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$702M
Cash & equivalents
$544M
Total debt
$4.4B
Shares outstanding
89M