DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$313.64
Intrinsic $418.19 · 25% MOS
Current price: $1070.23
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 16.4% for years 1–5 and 8.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 16.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.4B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $418.19 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $313.64, suggesting the stock is currently 71% overvalued against the $1070.23 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Cash & equivalents
$1.1B
Total debt
$4.2B
Shares outstanding
229M