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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$180.43
Intrinsic $240.58 · 25% MOS
Current price: $287.78
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 22.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3.8B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $240.58 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $180.43, suggesting the stock is currently 37% overvalued against the $287.78 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.8B
Cash & equivalents
$3.1B
Total debt
$1.9B
Shares outstanding
801M