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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$542.80
Intrinsic $723.74 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 33.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $442M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $723.74 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $542.80.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$442M
Cash & equivalents
$512M
Total debt
$343M
Shares outstanding
31M