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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$4.74
Intrinsic $6.31 · 25% MOS
Current price: $15.28
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($15M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $6.31 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $4.74, suggesting the stock is currently 69% overvalued against the $15.28 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$2M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($15M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$15M
Cash & equivalents
$6M
Total debt
$117M
Shares outstanding
40M