Choose a model
Each card values Roche Holding a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Roche Holding on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at the average of its 5-year median P/E, today's and a mature 18
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted, last twelve months, as filed
CHF 16.04
Earnings in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
CHF 16.04
Price in 2031
CHF 16.04 × 21.0 P/E
CHF 336.84
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
CHF 209.15
Plus dividends
CHF 54.00 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ CHF 40.94
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
CHF 250.09
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
CHF 187.57
Paying CHF 405.40 instead gives -0.7% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
CHF 250.09
Expected return
-0.7% a year
Future price, 2031
CHF 336.84
Buy below
CHF 187.57
Price 62% above fair valuePrice CHF 405.40, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Roche Holding AG. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
CHF 237.42
41% below the priceof CHF 405.40
Buy below CHF 178.07 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
CHF 275.12
32% below the priceof CHF 405.40
Buy below CHF 206.34 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
CHF 316.07
22% below the priceof CHF 405.40
Buy below CHF 237.05 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Either the growth inputs are more cautious than the market's, or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
CHF 13.07B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-4.5%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
8.0%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
59%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 8.0% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -4.5% a year.
Roche Holding (RO.XSWX) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Roche Holding's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for RO.XSWX; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Roche Holding's (RO.XSWX) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Roche Holding's fair value is about CHF 250.09 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of CHF 16.04 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 21.0 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow CHF 230.61, revenue CHF 249.51, dividends CHF 348.85. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Roche Holding overvalued?+
At CHF 405.40, the price is 62% above that fair value of CHF 250.09, and buying at today's price would return about -0.7% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Roche Holding valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Roche Holding?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at CHF 187.57. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Drug Manufacturers - General · Pick stocks to compare with RO.XSWX
Held by ETFs
RO.XSWX is in 92 US ETFs. The largest of them, with RO.XSWX's weight in each:
Vanguard Total International Stock ETFVXUS0.03%of the fund
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETFIEFA0.06%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
Keep analysing RO.XSWX
Create a free account and get 14 days of Premium: every stock and every tool.
- Unlimited stocks
- Stock screener
- Portfolio tracker
- Editable DCF
- Compare side by side
- Unlimited alerts
No card. Moves to Free after, unless you upgrade.
Already have an account?
Or come back tomorrow. Stocks on your watchlist are always free to view.